Communicating Uncertainty

—Yoda, Star Wars, Century uncertain Computers, the Internet, and the other new communication technologies are changing the information landscape. For journalists and the public alike, landmarks that used to identify trustworthy sources ...

Author: Sharon M. Friedman

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 0805827277

Category: Education

Page: 277

View: 471

This work explores scientific uncertainty and media coverage of science in such major public issues as AIDS, biotechnology, dioxin, global warming, and nature vs nurture.

Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products

Fischhoff explained that there are three concerns of experts that can hamper taking a scientific approach to communicating uncertainty. First, experts might be reluctant to express uncertainty, which they perceive as misplaced ...

Author: Institute of Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 0309310032

Category: Medical

Page: 150

View: 829

Despite the extensive body of evidence that informs regulatory decisions on pharmaceutical products, significant uncertainties persist, including the underlying variability in human biology, factors associated with the chemistry of a drug, and limitations in the research and clinical trial process itself that might limit the generalizability of results. As a result, regulatory reviewers are consistently required to draw conclusions about a drug's safety and efficacy from imperfect data. Efforts are underway within the drug development community to enhance the evaluation and communication of the benefits and risks associated with pharmaceutical products, aimed at increasing the predictability, transparency, and efficiency of pharmaceutical regulatory decision making. Effectively communicating regulatory decisions necessarily includes explanation of the impact of uncertainty on decision making. On February 12 and May 12, 2014, the Institute of Medicine's Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation held public workshops to advance the development of more systematic and structured approaches to characterize and communicate the sources of uncertainty in the assessment of benefits and risks, and to consider their implications for pharmaceutical regulatory decisions. Workshop presentations and discussions on February 12 were convened to explore the science of identifying and characterizing uncertainty in scientific evidence and approaches to translate uncertainties into decisions that reflect the values of stakeholders. The May 12 workshop presentations and discussions explored tools and approaches to communicating about scientific uncertainties to a range of stakeholders in the drug development process. Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products summarizes the presentation and discussion of both events. This report explores potential analytical and communication approaches and identifies key considerations on their development, evaluation, and incorporation into pharmaceutical benefit- risk assessment throughout the entire drug development lifecycle.

Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information

LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE CASE STUDIES 41 CONSIDERATIONS DURING THE RELEASE OF FORECASTS AND INFORMATION Understanding, communicating, and explaining uncertainty should be an integral and ongoing part of what weather and climate ...

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 0309168600

Category: Science

Page: 68

View: 897

The report explores how best to communicate weather and climate information by presenting five case studies, selected to illustrate a range of time scales and issues, from the forecasting of weather events, to providing seasonal outlooks, to projecting climate change.

Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making

COMMUNICATING UNCERTAINTY It is often argued that one should not try to communicate about uncertainty to non-technical audiences32, because laypeople won't understand and decision makers want definitive answers – what Senator Muskie ...

Author: M. Granger Morgan

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

ISBN: 1437912605

Category:

Page: 156

View: 977

This report is one of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program as part of an effort to integrate fed. research on climate change and to facilitate a nat. understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these reports are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this report is methodological. This report provides a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics. Illus.

Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk United Nations World Water Development Report 4 3 Vols

Communicating. risk. and. uncertainty. In order to make appropriate decisions to manage particular uncertainties and risks, the uncertainties and risks involved first have to be clearly understood. Events carrying a low probability of ...

Author: UNESCO

Publisher: UNESCO

ISBN: 9231042351

Category: Risk assessment

Page: 909

View: 925

Released every three years since March 2003, the United Nations World Water Development Report (WWDR), a flagship UN-Water report published by UNESCO, has become the voice of the United Nations system in terms of the state, use and management of the world's freshwater resources. The report is primarily targeted at national decision-makers and water resource managers, but is also aimed at educating and informing a broader audience, from governments to the private sector and civil society. It underlines the important roles water plays in all social, economic and environmental decisions, highlighting policy implications across various sectors, from local and municipal to regional and international levels. Similarly to the first two editions, this report includes a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of several key challenge areas, such as water for food, energy and human health, and governance challenges such as institutional reform, knowledge and capacity-building, and financing, each produced by individual UN agencies.

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Keywords: Communicating Uncertainty, Conversational Informatics, Conversational Artifacts, Immersive WOZ Environment, Conversational Decision Making, Empathic Agent. 1 Living with Uncertainty One of the ultimate goals of artificial ...

Author: Yongchuan Tang

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3642249183

Category: Computers

Page: 272

View: 337

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modeling and Decision Making, IUKM 2011, held in Hangzhou, China, in October 2011. The 21 revised full papers presented together with 1 keynote lecture and 5 invited talks were carefully reviewed and selected from 55 submissions. The papers provide a wealth of new ideas and report both theoretical and applied research on integrated uncertainty modeling and management.

Managing Uncertainty in Organizational Communication

In an examination of some of the interrelated uncertainties of cardiac patients, Sheer and Cline (1995) examined patients' ... In examining preferences for communicating given the uncertainty in acute and chronic health care situations, ...

Author: Michael W. Kramer

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1135613923

Category: Language Arts & Disciplines

Page: 152

View: 248

In this book, Michael W. Kramer applies uncertainty reduction theory (URT)--a key theory in current communication scholarship--to the context of organizational communication. Examining URT and the range of research applicable to organizational settings, Kramer proposes a groundbreaking theory of managing uncertainty (TMU), which synthesizes prior research while also addressing its criticisms. Examples are provided to illustrate the principles of the TMU at both the individual and collective (group/organizational) levels of analysis. Original studies based on the theory show that it provides a useful extension of URT, addressing some concerns raised by critics of that earlier model. Kramer illustrates that, as a model in progress, TMU will change as new research and insights build upon it. Managing Uncertainty in Organizational Communication assists readers in understanding and researching uncertainty in communication, which encourages additional changes and improvements to the model. It is of primary interest to scholars, researchers, and practitioners in organizational, interpersonal, and group communication.

Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk

“I think there is a need to get to grips with uncertainty. There should come an easier and univocal way of communicating uncertainty. Concepts like accuracy, uncertainty, reproducibility should be used unambiguously defined.

Author: Marjolein B.A. van Asselt

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9401725837

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 436

View: 732

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Scientific Uncertainty and Its Influence on the Public Communication Process

The considerable diversity in public interest will complicate how uncertainty is conveyed in a particular risk communication. Because there is little guidance on how to communicate uncertainty in risk communications, the Subcommittee on ...

Author: Virginia H. Sublet

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9401586195

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 234

View: 367

Experts from academia and government who are actively engaged in research in the area of risk communication present a compendium of cases that give information and allow the development of strategies to improve the communication of scientific information to the public. The cases span Western, Central and Eastern Europe, covering such areas as nuclear waste, heavy metal contamination, landfill siting, risk perception, global warming, international health for all, and more. The conclusions and recommendations presented here are being used to develop future activities to further explore this area of risk communication as an international study. Audience: Scientists, risk communicators, psychologists, toxicologists, health professionals, and anyone who has an interest in public communication on scientific uncertainty.

Uncertainty Information Management and Disclosure Decisions

Communicating uncertainty: Media coverage of new and controversial science. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. Gergen, K.J. (2000). An invitation to social construction. London: Sage. Gill, E. A., & Babrow, A. S. (2007).

Author: Tamara Afifi

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1135890552

Category: Language Arts & Disciplines

Page: 432

View: 248

This volume integrates scholarly work on disclosure and uncertainty with the most up-to-date, cutting edge research, theories, and applications. Uncertainty is an ever-present part of human relationships, and the ways in which people reduce and/or manage uncertainty involves regulating their communication with others through revealing and concealing information. This collection is devoted to collating knowledge in these areas, advancing theory and presenting work that is socially meaningful. This work includes contributions from renowned scholars in interpersonal uncertainty and information regulation, focusing on processes that bridge boundaries within and across disciplines, while maintaining emphasis on interpersonal contexts. Disciplines represented here include interpersonal, family, and health communication, as well as relational and social psychology. Key features of the volume include: comprehensive coverage integrating the latest research on disclosure, information seeking, and uncertainty a highly theoretical content, socially meaningful in nature (applied to real-world contexts) an interdisciplinary approach that crosses sub-fields within communication. This volume is a unique and timely resource for advanced study in interpersonal, health, or family communication. With its emphasis on theory, the book is an excellent resource for graduate courses addressing theory and/or theory construction, and it will also appeal to scholars interested in applied research.