Thinking in Bets

What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0735216363

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 298

Wall Street Journal bestseller! Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Summary of Annie Duke s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinking can help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that ...

Author: Milkyway Media

Publisher: Milkyway Media

ISBN:

Category: Study Aids

Page: 39

View: 173

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinkingcan help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations... Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

SUMMARY Thinking In Bets Making Smarter Decisions When You Don t Have All The Facts By Annie Duke

Ready to bet it? Chapter 1 : It is illusory to think that you will avoid uncertainty To decide, above all, to choose between several possibilities. However, there is no guarantee that your decision will be the best.

Author: Shortcut Edition

Publisher: Shortcut Edition

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 35

View: 120

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. As you read this summary, you will learn how to make better decisions based on the experience of a champion poker player. You will also learn: how to better manage pressure and uncertainty; how to better bet on the future; that the quality of your decisions directly influences your happiness; to be more benevolent towards yourself and no longer blame yourself in the event of a mistake; to see the world from other points of view. It might seem strange to use poker as a way to make better decisions in your day to day. Yet, come to think of it, it's not that absurd. In a poker tournament, champions have to make hundreds of decisions in a very short time. So each decision can cost or earn as much as the price of a house. Their ability to make decisions under pressure affects their income, so they can't afford to make mistakes too often. Annie Duke shares with you here the secrets of these professionals who are able to stay calm and decide quickly when the stakes are high. You will no doubt find methods to improve your own decision-making. Ready to bet it? *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

First Thousand Words in Arabic

WITH DELIGHTFUL PICTURES BY STEPHEN CARTWRIGHT, THIS IS A FUN AND ENGAGING WAY TO LEARN A NEW LANGUAGE.

Author: Heather Amery

Publisher: Usborne Pub Limited

ISBN:

Category: Juvenile Nonfiction

Page: 64

View: 942

THIS BRIGHT AND AMUSING BOOK PROVIDES A PERFECT STARTING POINT FOR BEGINNERS OF ALL AGES TO LEARN ARABIC. PANORAMIC PICTURES OF EVERYDAY SCENES ARE SURROUNDED BY SMALL PICTURES WITH THEIR NAMES IN ARABIC. EACH ARABIC WORD IS ALSO WRITTEN IN ROMAN LETTERS TO SHOW YOU HOW TO PRONOUNCE IT. THE ASSOCIATION OF THE WORDS AND PICTURES PROVIDES A SIMPLE AND EFFECTIVE WAY TO LEARN NEW VOCABULARY, WHILE THE PANORAMIC SCENES PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR TALKING ABOUT THE PICTURES AND FORMING SIMPLE SENTENCES. AT THE BACK OF THE BOOK THERE IS A GUIDE TO THE ARABIC ALPHABET AND A LIST OF ALL THE ARABIC WORDS WITH THEIR PRONUNCIATION GUIDES AND MEANINGS IN ENGLISH. WITH DELIGHTFUL PICTURES BY STEPHEN CARTWRIGHT, THIS IS A FUN AND ENGAGING WAY TO LEARN A NEW LANGUAGE.

Summary of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke Making Smarter Decisions When You Don t Have All the Facts

She currently works as a consultant, speaker and author. Her autobiography, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of P

Author: Ctprint

Publisher:

ISBN: 9781650715834

Category:

Page: 40

View: 649

Summary of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts .:::::::::: DISCLAIMER: Thіѕ іѕ a summary аnd mеаnt tо bе a grеаt соmраnіоnѕhір tо thе оrіgіnаl bооk оr tо ѕіmрlу hеlр уоu gеt thе gіѕt оf thе оrіgіnаl book.:::::::::: SYNOPSIS: In any situation, the best decision isn't guaranteed to work out, and even terrible decisions can sometimes turn out to be the right ones. So when things go wrong, who do we blame and why? And what about when things go right? In Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (2018), poker champion, author and business consultant Annie Duke shows how our addiction to outcomes leads to irrational thinking and the confusion of luck with skill.:::::::::: ABOUT AUTHOR: For over two decades, writer, coach and speaker Annie Duke was one of the world's top poker players. In 2004, she earned a World Series of Poker (WSOP) gold bracelet ahead of 234 other players, and in 2010 she won the WSOP Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship.Duke holds a master's degree in cognitive psychology from the University of Pennsylvania, where she also completed her doctoral coursework before beginning her career in poker. She currently works as a consultant, speaker and author. Her autobiography, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of P

Making Better Decisions by Thinking in Bets

This course was created by Pete Mockaitis of How to Be Awesome at Your Job. We are pleased to offer this training in our library.

Author: How to Be Awesome at Your Job

Publisher:

ISBN:

Category:

Page:

View: 790

Learn to make better, more informed decisions in an unpredictable world. In this course, adapted from the popular podcast How to Be Awesome at Your Job, host Pete Mockaitis interviews World Series of Poker champion and National Science Foundation Fellow Annie Duke. Annie shares the wisdom from the intersection of betting and psychology, starting with why good decisions and good outcomes don't always align. Learn about the effect of uncertainty on decision-making, and how to take luck and hidden information-what you know you don't know-into account. Making decisions on your own is hard, but when you involve other people it's even harder. So Annie offers three guidelines that can aid decision-making in groups: mutual goals, tolerance of diverse viewpoints, and accountability. This course was created by Pete Mockaitis of How to Be Awesome at Your Job. We are pleased to offer this training in our library.

Summary of Annie Duke s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinkingcan help individuals make better choices.

Author: Milkyway Media

Publisher:

ISBN: 9781724143815

Category:

Page: 28

View: 558

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinkingcan help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations...Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

The Ski Guide Manual

An outside view might at least remind us of that. black-and-white thinking can lead to overconfidence. Rather than put all my faith in a yes-or-no answer, I try to slow down and do what Duke advises: Ask myself, “Am I willing to bet on ...

Author: Rob Coppolillo

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

ISBN: 1493043439

Category: Sports & Recreation

Page: 304

View: 410

This updated, expert ski guide provides top-of-the-line insight for backcountry/off-piste skiiers and guides. The Ski Guide Manual presents wisdom earned through decades of experience guiding and. The result is a successful system of travel and risk management in the winter environment. The collective work of thousands of mountain guides have proven how to have the most fun and find the best snow, all which reducing risk of avalanche, cold, crevasses, and optimize group dynamics.

Critical Thinking for Managers

Thinking in certainties (because I am 100% right). ... We are drawn to the extreme in two ways: black or white thinking, in which we only consider extreme points of ... In her bestselling book Thinking in Bets, author, psychologist, ...

Author: Radu Atanasiu

Publisher: Springer Nature

ISBN: 3030736008

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 186

View: 356

This book discusses critical thinking as a tool for more compassionate leadership, presenting tried and tested methods for managing disagreement, for anticipating and solving problems, and for enhancing empathy. Employing a lighter tone of voice than most management books, it also shows how and when less-than-rational mechanisms such as intuition and heuristics may be efficient decision-making tools in any manager’s toolbox. Critical thinking is useful for analyzing incoming information in the context of decision-making and is crucial for structuring outgoing information in the context of persuasion. When trying to convince a client to buy a service, an executive board to fund a project, or a colleague to change a procedure, managers can use the simple step-by-step guides provided here to prepare for successful meetings and effective pitches. Managerial thinking can be steadily improved, using a structured process, especially if we learn to think about our thinking. This book guides current and would-be managers through this process of improving and metathinking, in connection with decision-making and persuasion. Using examples from business, together with research insights from Behavioral Economics and from Management and Organizational Cognition, the author illustrates common pitfalls like hidden assumptions and cognitive biases, and provides easy-to-use solutions for testing hypotheses and resolving dilemmas.

In the Arena Unleash your entrepreneurial spirit make your idea a roaring success

A superb book if you want to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions: Thinking in Bets. 25. In this witty TED talk, neuroscientist Stuart Firestein gets to the heart of science as it is really practiced and suggests that we should ...

Author: Saumita Banerjee

Publisher: LetsAuthor

ISBN: 8195259022

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 196

View: 187

Make Your Business Idea Come True. Imagine if you had the ability to know precisely what your customers want, and built a business around it. What if you could minimise the risk of failure when starting something of your own? What if you could act on your idea today and build it into a revenue-generating business? Written by a cohort of successful startup founders, mentors, business strategists and intrapreneurs from around the world, this book answers the question: what is the secret to building products that customers really love and willingly pay for? In this book, you'll learn: —Why you should (or shouldn't) act on your idea NOW —How to develop the mindset of a fearless entrepreneur with a strong sense of purpose —How to make better decisions when outcomes are uncertain, using the DM Canvas and the mental time travel technique —Why you should not spend your time and resources in search of investor funding, but instead delay investments as much as possible —How to design and build products with high chances of success in the real world (instead of speculating and failing) —How the "Innovator's Canvas" can help you build a flexible and robust business model —How to tell your story to get the attention of your customers —How to create valuable IP, not just patents to show in your pitch deck —BONUS: Be remarkable and stand out from your competition —BONUS: How you can build a culture of fearless innovation Each idea is unique, but there is a universal process to innovate. Buy this book to test your idea, unleash the entrepreneurial spirit within you and make your idea happen!