Thinking in Bets

What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0735216363

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 99

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Summary of Annie Duke s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Throughout Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke demonstrates that she has devoted
herself not just to understanding the rules of the popular card game, but also to
studying insights from sociologists, psychologists, economists, and statisticians.

Author: Milkyway Media

Publisher: Milkyway Media


Category: Study Aids

Page: 39

View: 434

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinkingcan help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations... Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

How to Decide

Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future.

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0593084616

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 997

Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.

The Dumb Things Smart People Do with Their Money

Please see “Thinking in Bets with Annie Duke,” Better Off with Jill Schlesinger,
March 15, 2018, I am roughly paraphrasing our
conversation here. . Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions
When You ...

Author: Jill Schlesinger

Publisher: Ballantine Books

ISBN: 0525622195

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 699

You’re smart. So don’t be dumb about money. Pinpoint your biggest money blind spots and take control of your finances with these tools from CBS News Business Analyst and host of the nationally syndicated radio show Jill on Money, Jill Schlesinger. Do you have a “friend” who is super smart, has a great career, holds a graduate degree, has even saved a chunk of money for retirement, but who keeps making the same dumb mistakes when it comes to money? Is this “friend” you? After decades working as a Wall Street trader, investment adviser, and money expert for CBS, Jill Schlesinger reveals thirteen costly mistakes you’re probably making right now with your money without even knowing it. Drawing on heartfelt personal stories (yes, money experts screw up, too), Schlesinger argues that it’s not lack of smarts that causes even the brightest, most accomplished people among us to behave like financial dumb-asses, but simple emotional blind spots. So if you’ve made well-intentioned mistakes like saving for college for your kids before you’ve saved for your own retirement, or taken on too much risk when you invest, you’ve come to the right place. And if you’ve avoided uncomfortable moments such as sitting down to draft a will or planning long-term care for an aging parent, this is the book for you. By breaking bad habits and following Schlesinger’s pragmatic and accessible rules for managing your finances, you can save tens, even hundreds, of thousands of dollars, not to mention avoid countless sleepless nights. Practical, no-nonsense, and often counterintuitive, The Dumb Things Smart People Do with Their Money tells you what you really need to hear about retirement, college financing, insurance, real estate, and more. It might just be the smartest investment you make all year. Advance praise for The Dumb Things Smart People Do with Their Money “Common sense is not always common, especially when it comes to managing your money. Consider Jill Schlesinger’s book your guide to all the things you should know about money but were never taught. After reading it, you’ll be smarter, wiser, and maybe even wealthier.”—Chris Guillebeau, author of Side Hustle and The $100 Startup “A must-read, whether you’re digging yourself out of a financial hole or stacking up savings for the future, The Dumb Things Smart People Do with Their Money is a personal finance gold mine loaded with smart financial nuggets delivered in Schlesinger’s straight-talking, judgment-free style.”—Beth Kobliner, author of Make Your Kid a Money Genius (Even If You’re Not) and Get a Financial Life

Statistical Thinking in Sports

6 Forecasting scores and results and testing the efficiency of the fixed-odds
betting market in Scottish league football ... model marginally, if it had been used
to select bets during the three Scottish football seasons from 2000-1 to 2002-3.

Author: Jim Albert

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9781584888697

Category: Mathematics

Page: 298

View: 670

Since the first athletic events found a fan base, sports and statistics have always maintained a tight and at times mythical relationship. As a way to relay the telling of a game's drama and attest to the prodigious powers of the heroes involved, those reporting on the games tallied up the numbers that they believe best described the action and best defined the winning edge. However, they may not have always counted the right numbers. Many of our hallowed beliefs about sports statistics have long been fraught with misnomers. Whether it concerns Scottish football or American baseball, the most revered statistics often have little to do with any winning edge. Covering an international collection of sports, Statistical Thinking in Sports provides an accessible survey of current research in statistics and sports, written by experts from a variety of arenas. Rather than rely on casual observation, they apply the rigorous tools of statistics to re-examine many of those concepts that have gone from belief to fact, based mostly on the repetition of their claims. Leaving assumption behind, these researchers take on a host of tough questions- Is a tennis player only as good as his or her first serve? Is there such a thing as home field advantage? Do concerns over a decline in soccer's competitive balance have any merit? What of momentum-is its staying power any greater than yesterday's win? And what of pressure performers? Are there such creatures or ultimately, does every performer fall back to his or her established normative? Investigating a wide range of international team and individual sports, the book considers the ability to make predictions, define trends, and measure any number of influences. It is full of interesting and useful examples for those teaching introductory statistics. Although the articles are aimed at general readers, the serious researcher in sports statistics will also find the articles of value and highly useful as starting points for further research.

Poker Gaming Life

This volume is a collection of recent articles written by David Sklansky that have appeared in various publications including Card Player, Poker World and the Two Plus Two Poker Strategy Magazine.

Author: David Sklansky

Publisher: Two Plus Two Publishing LLC

ISBN: 9781880685457

Category: Games & Activities

Page: 330

View: 830

This volume is a collection of recent articles written by David Sklansky that have appeared in various publications including Card Player, Poker World and the Two Plus Two Poker Strategy Magazine. A few have never before appeared in print. Most of the articles are about poker or gambling. However, David has recently branched out into other areas that lend themselves to his unique style of analysis and some of these essays are contained in this book. From the original book, Poker and gaming topics include Being a Favorite, Are Great Players Born? Talent Versus Discipline, The Importance of Position, Never Go Broke, When Time is Not of the Essence, and Is Your Wallet Fat Enough? Life topics include What It Is that Makes an Issue Controversial, Coincidences, Some Thoughts on Dying, Legitimate Grievances, and Crime and Punishment. This expanded addition also contains 32 additional essays, many of which address no-limit hold 'em. Essays for the Expanded Edition include Pros Versu

Mathematical Thinking in the Measurement of Behavior Small Groups Utility Factor Analysis

Probability - preferences in gambling , " Am . J . Psych . , 66 , 349 — 364 ( 1953c )
. - : " Probability - preferences among bets with differing expected values , ” Psych
. Rev . , 67 , 56 – 67 ( 1954a ) . “ The theory of decision making , ” Psych . Bull .

Author: Ernest Wilcox Adams



Category: Choice (Psychology)

Page: 314

View: 724

Evidence Based Recruiting How to Build a Company of Star Performers Through Systematic and Repeatable Hiring Practices

... 4–7,92 Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahenman), 31, 150–151,199 Thinking in
Bets (Duke),219 time creating feedback loop and, 49 indirect costs of bad hires,
12 time, feedback loop challenges in recruiting, 49 top-tier talent, 27–31
TopGrading ...

Author: Atta Tarki

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

ISBN: 1260461424

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 208

View: 183

Develop and execute systematic, best-in-class hiring practices to seize—and hold—the competitive edge in your industry Defending your business from the competition through regulations, differentiated technologies, brand recognition, and other methods is no longer a sustainable competitive advantage. In today’s fast-paced, ever-changing business environment, you must take an offensive stance to keep your competitors at bay. And this groundbreaking guide provides the inspiration, the know-how, and the tools you need to achieve it. guides you through the process of designing and implementing a data-driven hiring strategy that will secure your business for the foreseeable future. Revealing how today’s top innovators—including Netflix and Google—dominate their industries, it shows how you can do the same by implementing systematic and repeatable processes that lead to better, more consistent hiring outcomes. You’ll learn how to: • Envision an evidence-based approach to hiring • Distinguish useful data from the data you don’t need • Use the best technologies to achieve your recruitment goals • Build an effective talent-acquisition team • Improve on-the-job success predictions • Design well-defined and objective measures to improve hiring outcomes • Avoid the most common hiring pitfalls Data and analytics have been reshaping countless industries as they turn from anecdotal to evidence-based practices. The recruiting and hiring processes, however, have been intuition-based. That changes today. Evidence-Based Recruiting introduces an entirely new approach—one that relies on irrefutable facts and data, enabling you and your organization to thrive in the new era of talent acquisition.

Money for the Rest of Us 10 Questions to Master Successful Investing

—ANNIE DUKE, decision strategist and bestselling author of Thinking in Bets
David provides a clear road map for investors, brought to life through a series of
personal anecdotes. He recognizes that past is not prologue, that the successful

Author: J. David Stein

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

ISBN: 1260453871

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 584

Learn how to protect and grow your wealth with this commonsense guide to investing You manage your own money. You understand the basics of investing and diversifying your portfolio. Now it’s time to invest like a pro for greater profits—with investment expert David Stein, host of the popular weekly podcast, “Money for the Rest of Us.” He’s created a unique ten-question template that makes it easy for individual investors like you to: • Invest more confidently • Feel less overwhelmed • Build a stronger portfolio • Avoid costly mistakes • Plan and save for retirement Despite what many people believe, you don’t need to be an expert to be a successful investor. With Stein as your personal money mentor, you’ll learn how to make smarter, more informed decisions that can help reduce your risk and increase your gains by following a few simple rules for analyzing any investment. This is how the professionals grow their wealth and how you can, too. This is Money for the Rest of Us.

Welcome to Management How to Grow From Top Performer to Excellent Leader

—Annie Duke, bestselling author of Thinking in Bets Ryan Hawk uses his unique
knowledge and understanding of leadership to help the reader learn practical
ways to lead, to build the right culture, and to improve each day. Ryan uses great

Author: Ryan Hawk

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

ISBN: 1260458075

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 240

View: 347

“The ultimate all-in-one guide to becoming a great leader.”—Daniel Pink From the creator and host of The Learning Leader Show, “the most dynamic leadership podcast out there” (Forbes) that will “help you lead smarter” (Inc.), comes an essential tactical guide for newly promoted managers. Every year, millions of top performers are promoted to management-level jobs—only to discover that the tactics that got them promoted are not the tactics that will make them effective in their new role. In Welcome to Management, Ryan Hawk provides practical, actionable advice and tools designed to ensure that transition is a successful one. He presents a new actionable three-part framework distilled from best practices drawn from in-depth interviews with over 300 of the most forward-thinking leaders around the world, as well as his own professional experience going from exceptional individual producer to new leader. Learn how to: • lead yourself: build skills and earn credibility. Compliance can be commanded, but commitment cannot. People reserve their full capacity for emotional commitment for leaders they find credible, and credibility must be earned. • build your team: develop a healthy and sustainable culture of mutual trust and respect that creates cohesion. This includes effective hiring and firing practices. • lead your team: set a clear strategy and vision for your team, communicate effectively, and ultimately drive the results the organization is counting on your team to deliver. Through case studies, hundreds of interviews, and personal stories, the book will help high performers make the leap from individual contributor to manager with greater ease, grace, courage, and effectiveness. Welcome to management!

Secrets of Professional Sports Betting

Another example of hedging bets happenswith future wagers. Let's saythat
during the NCAA basketball season, you think that Georgetown is an underrated,
hot team. Georgetown to win the championship is at 30to 1 odds.You then bet$30
on ...

Author: Michael Kochan

Publisher: Cardoza Publishing

ISBN: 1580424384

Category: Games

Page: 256

View: 325

You Bet

The Betfair Story and how Two Men Changed the World of Gambling Colin
Cameron. If America is a work in ... and partly through the company ' s persuasion
, has contributed to wholesale changes to thinking on betting . Proof of which
alone ...

Author: Colin Cameron

Publisher: Harpercollins Pub Limited


Category: Business & Economics

Page: 308

View: 268

The fascinating story of a huge international business success story, and how one company has created legions of new gamblers and changed the worlds of gambling and sport forever. A betting exchange is an internet company which provides gamblers with an online marketplace in which they can bet with each other. Betting exchanges now account for a third of all betting in Britain. Betfair is the world's preeminent betting exchange, with 90% of the global market. Betfair oversees five million bets each day?10 times greater than the volume of the London Stock Exchange trades.


This book is a great way to learn from leaders in their field.

Author: Maya Peterson




Page: 175

View: 470

"Lighthouse is filled with women who bet on themselves and beat the odds to make successful careers. This book is a great way to learn from leaders in their field." -- Annie Duke, Author of Thinking in Bets and Professional Poker Player "Lighthouse is a must-read for anyone looking for inspirational female role models in finance. Through a series of in-depth personal interviews, Maya reveals the real life struggles and strategies of women who overcame obstacles to succeed in a male dominated industry, on their own terms." -- Rupal Bhansali, CIO of International and Global Equities, Ariel Investments, Author of Non-Consensus Investing Lighthouse: Women Leading the Way in Finance is not just about the success of women leaders; it is also a collection of remarkable human-interest stories. In her writing, Peterson focused on the human and the women's own lighthouses behind their success--the grandmother who inspired, the math teacher who brought to light a whole new world--and delivered a wonderful tale of human resilience and growth. We can all use a lighthouse in our lives. I have no doubt that Peterson and her book will be one of the bright ones. -- Excerpt from Foreward by Dr. Chenxi Wang, Founder and General Partner at Rain Capital

One Touch of Ecstasy

Bets peeked at Louise , then looked down . “ Uh — I'm sorry about the way I've
been acting . But I've been thinking . In one way , I guess I can understand how
you feel about Phil . ” Louise stiffened at the name . Bets blinked and went on
with ...

Author: Gwynne Wimberly



Category: Wives

Page: 256

View: 790

Developing Thinking in Statistics

Odds Betting odds are a well - known but not well - understood way of quantifying
chance . The odds attached to a particular runner or player ( horse , dog , tennis
player , and so on ) are , roughly speaking , a measure of how likely punters ...

Author: Alan Graham

Publisher: SAGE Publications Limited


Category: Education

Page: 276

View: 392

Designed to heighten awareness of statistical ideas, this comprehensive and research-based text explores four main themes: describing, comparing, inter-relating, and uncertainty.

The Self made Billionaire Effect Deluxe

another way, they don't think through whether they need someone who is a
master at executing in a known context or someone with ... Performers are safe
bets. They think in ways that your executive leadership and your board will

Author: John Sviokla

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0698198263

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 256

View: 802

The Deluxe Edition of The Self-made Billionaire Effect includes seven videos of authors John Sviokla and Mitch Cohen expanding on the book’s themes and their findings, along with behind-the-scenes insights into what makes self-made billionaires unique.A study of self-made billionaires reveals the key distinction between “producers” and “performers” There are about 800 self-made billionaires in the world today. What enables this elite group to create truly massive value, and what can the rest of us learn from them? John Sviokla and Mitch Cohen set out to answer this question with the first systematic study of 120 self-made billionaires, including extensive interviews with icons like Steve Case, Mark Cuban, and T. Boone Pickens, Jr. The authors conclude that self-made billionaires aren't necessarily smarter, harder working, or luckier than their peers. The key difference is what they call the “producer” mindset, in contrast to the far more common “performer” mindset. Performers strive to excel in well-defined areas, and they are essential to any company. But producers are even more valuable because they redefine what's possible, rather than simply meeting pre-existing goals and standards. Producers think up entirely new products, services, strategies, and business models, with dramatic results. This book offers fresh stories and insights into producers' habits of mind. It also provides corporate leaders with a new approach to selecting and managing breakthrough talent, and advice about innovation and value creation for aspiring leaders or entrepreneurs.

In Defense of Religious Moderation

Each time the roulette wheel landed on a number we had bet, it seemed as if we
—possessed if only temporarily by some ... And yet when we think of betting on
an outcome, we often think in terms of an outcome that was going to happen and

Author: William Egginton

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 0231520964

Category: Religion

Page: 176

View: 318

In his latest book, William Egginton laments the current debate over religion in America, in which religious fundamentalists have set the tone of political discourse—no one can get elected without advertising a personal relation to God, for example—and prominent atheists treat religious belief as the root of all evil. Neither of these positions, Egginton argues, adequately represents the attitudes of a majority of Americans who, while identifying as Christians, Jews, and Muslims, do not find fault with those who support different faiths and philosophies. In fact, Egginton goes so far as to question whether fundamentalists and atheists truly oppose each other, united as they are in their commitment to a "code of codes." In his view, being a religious fundamentalist does not require adhering to a particular religious creed. Fundamentalists—and stringent atheists—unconsciously believe that the methods we use to understand the world are all versions of an underlying master code. This code of codes represents an ultimate truth, explaining everything. Surprisingly, perhaps the most effective weapon against such thinking is religious moderation, a way of believing that questions the very possibility of a code of codes as the source of all human knowledge. The moderately religious, with their inherent skepticism toward a master code, are best suited to protect science, politics, and other diverse strains of knowledge from fundamentalist attack, and to promote a worldview based on the compatibility between religious faith and scientific method.

Thinking for Decisions

How much more “ possible ” is it to win exactly five out of 10 bets on red in a
roulette game ? 7. You are in charge of a manufacturing process which is
intended to produce electrical fuses with approximately 1 % defectives , and you
have ...

Author: Charles West Churchman

Publisher: SRA/McGraw-Hill


Category: Decision-making

Page: 445

View: 883

Scenario Planning Revised and Updated

So instead of counting in hours , days , months or years , we need to think in
terms of generations when it comes to innovation . PRINCIPLE 7 : THINK IN
EXPERIMENTS AND BETS Imagine a misty mountain landscape . You are
leading your ...

Author: Mats Lindgren

Publisher: Palgrave MacMillan


Category: Business & Economics

Page: 204

View: 972

In this text, the authors draw upon examples and cases to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy.