Thinking in Bets

What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0735216363

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 444

Wall Street Journal bestseller! Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

SUMMARY Thinking In Bets Making Smarter Decisions When You Don t Have All The Facts By Annie Duke

You will no doubt find methods to improve your own decision-making. Ready to bet it? *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

Author: Shortcut Edition

Publisher: Shortcut Edition

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 35

View: 384

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. As you read this summary, you will learn how to make better decisions based on the experience of a champion poker player. You will also learn: how to better manage pressure and uncertainty; how to better bet on the future; that the quality of your decisions directly influences your happiness; to be more benevolent towards yourself and no longer blame yourself in the event of a mistake; to see the world from other points of view. It might seem strange to use poker as a way to make better decisions in your day to day. Yet, come to think of it, it's not that absurd. In a poker tournament, champions have to make hundreds of decisions in a very short time. So each decision can cost or earn as much as the price of a house. Their ability to make decisions under pressure affects their income, so they can't afford to make mistakes too often. Annie Duke shares with you here the secrets of these professionals who are able to stay calm and decide quickly when the stakes are high. You will no doubt find methods to improve your own decision-making. Ready to bet it? *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

Summary of Annie Duke s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Throughout Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke demonstrates that she has devoted herself not just to understanding the rules of the popular card game, ...

Author: Milkyway Media

Publisher: Milkyway Media

ISBN:

Category: Study Aids

Page: 39

View: 694

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinkingcan help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations... Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

Summary of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke Making Smarter Decisions When You Don t Have All the Facts

She currently works as a consultant, speaker and author. Her autobiography, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of P

Author: Ctprint

Publisher:

ISBN: 9781650715834

Category:

Page: 40

View: 668

Summary of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts .:::::::::: DISCLAIMER: Thіѕ іѕ a summary аnd mеаnt tо bе a grеаt соmраnіоnѕhір tо thе оrіgіnаl bооk оr tо ѕіmрlу hеlр уоu gеt thе gіѕt оf thе оrіgіnаl book.:::::::::: SYNOPSIS: In any situation, the best decision isn't guaranteed to work out, and even terrible decisions can sometimes turn out to be the right ones. So when things go wrong, who do we blame and why? And what about when things go right? In Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (2018), poker champion, author and business consultant Annie Duke shows how our addiction to outcomes leads to irrational thinking and the confusion of luck with skill.:::::::::: ABOUT AUTHOR: For over two decades, writer, coach and speaker Annie Duke was one of the world's top poker players. In 2004, she earned a World Series of Poker (WSOP) gold bracelet ahead of 234 other players, and in 2010 she won the WSOP Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship.Duke holds a master's degree in cognitive psychology from the University of Pennsylvania, where she also completed her doctoral coursework before beginning her career in poker. She currently works as a consultant, speaker and author. Her autobiography, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of P

Summary of Annie Duke s Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets explores how probabilistic thinking can help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations.

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN:

Category: Decision making

Page:

View: 639

Thinking in Bets explores how probabilistic thinking can help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations.

Making Better Decisions by Thinking in Bets

This course was created by Pete Mockaitis of How to Be Awesome at Your Job. We are pleased to offer this training in our library.

Author: How to Be Awesome at Your Job

Publisher:

ISBN:

Category:

Page:

View: 775

Learn to make better, more informed decisions in an unpredictable world. In this course, adapted from the popular podcast How to Be Awesome at Your Job, host Pete Mockaitis interviews World Series of Poker champion and National Science Foundation Fellow Annie Duke. Annie shares the wisdom from the intersection of betting and psychology, starting with why good decisions and good outcomes don't always align. Learn about the effect of uncertainty on decision-making, and how to take luck and hidden information-what you know you don't know-into account. Making decisions on your own is hard, but when you involve other people it's even harder. So Annie offers three guidelines that can aid decision-making in groups: mutual goals, tolerance of diverse viewpoints, and accountability. This course was created by Pete Mockaitis of How to Be Awesome at Your Job. We are pleased to offer this training in our library.

Thinking and Deciding

Many theorists have argued that we should think about our personal willingness to bet that the proposition in question is true. Surely, the probability of a ...

Author: Jonathan Baron

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 113946602X

Category: Psychology

Page:

View: 633

Beginning with its first edition and through subsequent editions, Thinking and Deciding has established itself as the required text and important reference work for students and scholars of human cognition and rationality. In this fourth edition, first published in 2007, Jonathan Baron retains the comprehensive attention to the key questions addressed in the previous editions - how should we think? What, if anything, keeps us from thinking that way? How can we improve our thinking and decision making? - and his expanded treatment of topics such as risk, utilitarianism, Baye's theorem, and moral thinking. With the student in mind, the fourth edition emphasises the development of an understanding of the fundamental concepts in judgement and decision making. This book is essential reading for students and scholars in judgement and decision making and related fields, including psychology, economics, law, medicine, and business.

Sports Betting to Win

But this is the only guide that helps you make your trades and bank your wins for the long term, avoiding the perennial dangers of overconfidence, irrationality and emotion.

Author: Steve Ward

Publisher: Harriman House Limited

ISBN: 0857191209

Category: Games

Page: 218

View: 274

Thinking, and betting, like the pros "Most people in sports betting are looking at things the wrong way." - Peter Webb, founder of Bet Angel "Some people only ever seem to want to hit the sexy six, and not take the singles" - Compton Hellyer, founder of Sporting Index This is a book that teaches you how to bet on sports with the same discipline and mindset as the professionals. Lots of books and websites give advice on profitable strategies - and tipsters and systems proliferate. But this is the only guide that helps you make your trades and bank your wins for the long term, avoiding the perennial dangers of overconfidence, irrationality and emotion. However successful your selections, you are never safe from crippling losses until you know how to bet with the clear head and calm approach of the masters. The simple fact is that most people betting on sports lose over the long term. Performance errors currently hamper the majority of bettors: they lose their bets because they first lose their heads.The only answer is to think differently. With chapters ranging across motivation, performance analysis, the betting process and going pro, this book is the definitive guide to achieving this: - Use dozens of exercises to sharpen your thinking and refine your betting processes. - Share in the exclusive insights of professional sports bettors, who reveal for the first time how they have built successful gambling careers. - Benefit in every chapter from one-to-one training from the author, a professional sports and trading performance coach. Sports Betting to Win is your own personal course for establishing a firm psychological foundation for long-term betting success.

Thinking about Acting

So better odds correspond to gambles with higher expected values . Higher degrees of belief make it reasonable to accept bets with poorer odds . If I think ...

Author: John L. Pollock

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780195304817

Category: Education

Page: 267

View: 685

This book aims to construct a theory of rational decision making for real, resource-bounded, agents. Such decision making must be based on objective probabilities rather than subjective probabilities, and cannot be done by choosing single actions with maximal expected values. Actions must be chosen as parts of plans, and plans must be evaluated in the context of other plans.

Design Thinking

Rather than placing such a “big bet,” design thinking encourages many “little bets” (Sims, 2013) about customer insights and possible solutions.

Author: Michael G. Luchs

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118971817

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 456

View: 731

Develop a more systematic, human-centered, results-oriented thought process Design Thinking is the Product Development and Management Association's (PDMA) guide to better problem solving and decision-making in product development and beyond. The second in the New Product Development Essentials series, this book shows you how to bridge the gap between the strategic importance of design and the tactical approach of design thinking. You'll learn how to approach new product development from a fresh perspective, with a focus on systematic, targeted thinking that results in a repeatable, human-centered problem-solving process. Integrating high-level discussion with practical, actionable strategy, this book helps you re-tool your thought processes in a way that translates well beyond product development, giving you a new way to approach business strategy and more. Design is a process of systematic creativity that yields the most appropriate solution to a properly identified problem. Design thinking disrupts stalemates and brings logic to the forefront of the conversation. This book shows you how to adopt these techniques and train your brain to see the answer to any question, at any level, in any stage of the development process. Become a better problem-solver in every aspect of business Connect strategy with practice in the context of product development Systematically map out your new product, service, or business Experiment with new thought processes and decision making strategies You can't rely on old ways of thinking to produce the newest, most cutting-edge solutions. Product development is the bedrock of business —whether your "product" is a tangible object, a service, or the business itself — and your approach must be consistently and reliably productive. Design Thinking helps you internalize this essential process so you can bring value to innovation and merge strategy with reality.

Statistical Thinking in Sports

A simple empirical test for the efficiency of the fixed-odds betting market takes the form of an investigation of the profitability of a simple betting ...

Author: Jim Albert

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9781584888697

Category: Mathematics

Page: 298

View: 285

Since the first athletic events found a fan base, sports and statistics have always maintained a tight and at times mythical relationship. As a way to relay the telling of a game's drama and attest to the prodigious powers of the heroes involved, those reporting on the games tallied up the numbers that they believe best described the action and best defined the winning edge. However, they may not have always counted the right numbers. Many of our hallowed beliefs about sports statistics have long been fraught with misnomers. Whether it concerns Scottish football or American baseball, the most revered statistics often have little to do with any winning edge. Covering an international collection of sports, Statistical Thinking in Sports provides an accessible survey of current research in statistics and sports, written by experts from a variety of arenas. Rather than rely on casual observation, they apply the rigorous tools of statistics to re-examine many of those concepts that have gone from belief to fact, based mostly on the repetition of their claims. Leaving assumption behind, these researchers take on a host of tough questions- Is a tennis player only as good as his or her first serve? Is there such a thing as home field advantage? Do concerns over a decline in soccer's competitive balance have any merit? What of momentum-is its staying power any greater than yesterday's win? And what of pressure performers? Are there such creatures or ultimately, does every performer fall back to his or her established normative? Investigating a wide range of international team and individual sports, the book considers the ability to make predictions, define trends, and measure any number of influences. It is full of interesting and useful examples for those teaching introductory statistics. Although the articles are aimed at general readers, the serious researcher in sports statistics will also find the articles of value and highly useful as starting points for further research.

Winning Without Thinking

A Guide to Horse Race Betting Systems Nick Mordin ... getting 20-1 about a horse you think should be Evens , you ought to bet 47.5 per cent of your betting ...

Author: Nick Mordin

Publisher: Aesculus Press Ltd

ISBN: 9781904328148

Category: Horse racing

Page: 426

View: 301

Nick Mordin estimates he has spent over 30,000 hours researching racing results over the years. His aim has been to uncover the principles that govern the betting market and racing results themselves. In conducting his research Nick has tested thousands of systems, both his own and those developed by academics, professional gamblers and others around the globe. In Winning Without Thinking he shares the fruits of this work. the results of horse-races; basic principles that govern racing results and the betting market; mistakes commonly made by the general betting public and how to exploit them; full details of betting systems used by professional gamblers to make millions; how to predict and profit from new trends; and how to use computers to increase your returns.

Little Bets

What do Apple CEO Steve Jobs, comedian Chris Rock, prize-winning architect Frank Gehry, the story developers at Pixar films, and the Army Chief of Strategic Plans all have in common?

Author: Peter Sims

Publisher: Free Press

ISBN: 9781439170427

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 224

View: 703

What do Apple CEO Steve Jobs, comedian Chris Rock, prize-winning architect Frank Gehry, the story developers at Pixar films, and the Army Chief of Strategic Plans all have in common? Bestselling author Peter Sims found that all of them have achieved breakthrough results by methodically taking small, experimental steps in order to discover and develop new ideas. Rather than believing they have to start with a big idea or plan a whole project out in advance, trying to foresee the final outcome, they make a series of little bets about what might be a good direction, learning from lots of little failures and from small but highly significant wins that allow them to happen upon unexpected avenues and arrive at extraordinary outcomes. Based on deep and extensive research, including more than 200 interviews with leading innovators, Sims discovered that productive, creative thinkers and doers—from Ludwig van Beethoven to Thomas Edison and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos—practice a key set of simple but ingenious experimental methods—such as failing quickly to learn fast, tapping into the genius of play, and engaging in highly immersed observation—that free their minds, opening them up to making unexpected connections and perceiving invaluable insights. These methods also unshackle them from the constraints of overly analytical thinking and linear problem solving that our education places so much emphasis on, as well as from the fear of failure, all of which thwart so many of us in trying to be more innovative. Reporting on a fascinating range of research, from the psychology of creative blocks to the influential Silicon Valley–based field of design thinking, Sims offers engaging and wonderfully illuminating accounts of breakthrough innovators at work, including how Hewlett-Packard stumbled onto the breakaway success of the first hand-held calculator; the remarkable storyboarding process at Pixar films that has been the key to their unbroken streak of box office successes; the playful discovery process by which Frank Gehry arrived at his critically acclaimed design for Disney Hall; the aha revelation that led Amazon to pursue its wildly successful affiliates program; and the U.S. Army’s ingenious approach to counterinsurgency operations that led to the dramatic turnaround in Iraq. Fast paced and as entertaining as it is illuminating, Little Bets offers a whole new way of thinking about how to break away from the narrow strictures of the methods of analyzing and problem solving we were all taught in school and unleash our untapped creative powers.

Critical Thinking in Psychology

BELIEFS AS BETS Unfortunately the belief machine is too mechanical and stupid to provide hints as to which of your beliefs are true and which are not .

Author: Robert J. Sternberg

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9780521608343

Category: Psychology

Page: 340

View: 954

Explores key topics in psychology, showing how they can be critically examined.


Westminster Papers

The line should be clearly drawn between the forced and the fancy bets , otherwise we are introduced ... Every bet , to our thinking , should stand alone .

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ISBN:

Category: Chess

Page:

View: 349


Westminster Chess Club Papers

Suppose the milder form is played , with a bet of £ 1 or £ 2 , other bets optional . ... Every bet , to our thinking , should stand alone .

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Little Bets

It's a simple approach, validated by research, and a number of creative practitioners strongly value this book. design thinking Brown, Tim.

Author: Peter Sims

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

ISBN: 1439170436

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 213

View: 577

Lays out strategies for harnessing one's creativity for greater success, drawing on the wisdom of more than two hundred creative thinkers, including Steve Jobs and Chris Rock.

The 7 Perspectives of Effective Leaders

If you're looking to improve your leadership, this book will give you a straightforward framework to do so. "This book is full of truth and is a remarkable, simple, and accurate approach to leading an organization.

Author: Daniel Harkavy

Publisher: Baker Books

ISBN: 149342260X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 192

View: 709

According to CEO and executive coach Daniel Harkavy, effective leadership boils down to just two things: your decisions and influence. Good decisions lead to strong results, which in turn increase your influence. If you get these two things right, your leadership effectiveness improves. But as all leaders know, it's not that easy, especially in today's fast-paced, complex, and connected environment. To make the best decisions and have maximum impact, you need to see your business from seven perspectives: - current reality - long-term vision - strategic bets - the team - the customer - your role - the outsider Drawing upon his 25 years of experience as a successful CEO and executive coach, and including conversations and thinking from more than 20 well-known business and organizational leaders, Daniel Harkavy unpacks a proven framework you can implement for immediate results in your organization's culture and performance. If you're looking to improve your leadership, this book will give you a straightforward framework to do so.

An Invitation to Cognitive Science Thinking

Now if possibility 1 arises , then you lose bet ( a ) , win bet ( b ) , and neither win nor lose bet ( c ' ) ; overall , you lose $ .10 .

Author: Edward E. Smith

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 9780262650434

Category: Psychology

Page: 440

View: 826

An Invitation to Cognitive Science provides a point of entry intothe vast realm of cognitive science, offering selected examples of issues and theories from many ofits subfields. All of the volumes in the second edition contain substantially revised and as well asentirely new chapters. Rather than surveying theories and data in the mannercharacteristic of many introductory textbooks in the field, An Invitation to CognitiveScience employs a unique case study approach, presenting a focused research topic in somedepth and relying on suggested readings to convey the breadth of views and results. Each chaptertells a coherent scientific story, whether developing themes and ideas or describing a particularmodel and exploring its implications. The volumes are self contained and can beused individually in upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses ranging from introductorypsychology, linguistics, cognitive science, and decision sciences, to social psychology, philosophyof mind, rationality, language, and vision science.