Thinking in Bets

What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0735216363

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 459

Wall Street Journal bestseller! Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Summary of Annie Duke s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Throughout Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke demonstrates that she has devoted
herself not just to understanding the rules of the popular card game, but also to
studying insights from sociologists, psychologists, economists, and statisticians.

Author: Milkyway Media

Publisher: Milkyway Media

ISBN:

Category: Study Aids

Page: 39

View: 979

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinkingcan help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations... Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

Summary of Annie Duke s Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets explores how probabilistic thinking can help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations.

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN:

Category: Decision making

Page:

View: 975

Thinking in Bets explores how probabilistic thinking can help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations.

Summary of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke Making Smarter Decisions When You Don t Have All the Facts

She currently works as a consultant, speaker and author. Her autobiography, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of P

Author: Ctprint

Publisher:

ISBN: 9781650715834

Category:

Page: 40

View: 663

Summary of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts .:::::::::: DISCLAIMER: Thіѕ іѕ a summary аnd mеаnt tо bе a grеаt соmраnіоnѕhір tо thе оrіgіnаl bооk оr tо ѕіmрlу hеlр уоu gеt thе gіѕt оf thе оrіgіnаl book.:::::::::: SYNOPSIS: In any situation, the best decision isn't guaranteed to work out, and even terrible decisions can sometimes turn out to be the right ones. So when things go wrong, who do we blame and why? And what about when things go right? In Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (2018), poker champion, author and business consultant Annie Duke shows how our addiction to outcomes leads to irrational thinking and the confusion of luck with skill.:::::::::: ABOUT AUTHOR: For over two decades, writer, coach and speaker Annie Duke was one of the world's top poker players. In 2004, she earned a World Series of Poker (WSOP) gold bracelet ahead of 234 other players, and in 2010 she won the WSOP Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship.Duke holds a master's degree in cognitive psychology from the University of Pennsylvania, where she also completed her doctoral coursework before beginning her career in poker. She currently works as a consultant, speaker and author. Her autobiography, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of P

Casino Journal

Who : Kevin Torf , CEO BET TRACKER AUTOMATED GAMING TECHNOLOGY
What : Cash processing and ... them by potential winners and losers , moving
slips between piles as the action and scores changed . got to thinking that bet ...

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN:

Category: Casinos

Page:

View: 797


Realism antirealism and Epistemology

point of view is a collection of bets that P is committed to thinking would
guarantee a loss for him - or herself . To take a trivial example , consider the
following two bets : 1 . If A is true , one receives four dollars ; if A is not true , one
loses six ...

Author: Christopher B. Kulp

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Pub Incorporated

ISBN:

Category: Philosophy

Page: 178

View: 539

This landmark collection of essays by six renowned philosophers explores the implications of the contentious realism/antirealism debate for epistemology. The essays examine issues such as whether epistemology needs to be realist, the bearing of a realist conception of truth on epistemology, and realism and antirealism in terms of a pragmatist conception of epistemic justification. Richard Rorty's essay provides a critical commentary on the other five.

The 7 Perspectives of Effective Leaders

If you're looking to improve your leadership, this book will give you a straightforward framework to do so. "This book is full of truth and is a remarkable, simple, and accurate approach to leading an organization.

Author: Daniel Harkavy

Publisher: Baker Books

ISBN: 149342260X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 192

View: 217

According to CEO and executive coach Daniel Harkavy, effective leadership boils down to just two things: your decisions and influence. Good decisions lead to strong results, which in turn increase your influence. If you get these two things right, your leadership effectiveness improves. But as all leaders know, it's not that easy, especially in today's fast-paced, complex, and connected environment. To make the best decisions and have maximum impact, you need to see your business from seven perspectives: - current reality - long-term vision - strategic bets - the team - the customer - your role - the outsider Drawing upon his 25 years of experience as a successful CEO and executive coach, and including conversations and thinking from more than 20 well-known business and organizational leaders, Daniel Harkavy unpacks a proven framework you can implement for immediate results in your organization's culture and performance. If you're looking to improve your leadership, this book will give you a straightforward framework to do so.

Social Science Working Paper

To check for predictability we regressed the net attack effect (the difference in
post minus IN-1 bet shifts between attack ... Hence, by betting later we might be
able to fool more open-minded bettors into thinking our bets revealed information
.

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN:

Category: Social sciences

Page:

View: 678


Little Bets

Lays out strategies for harnessing one's creativity for greater success, drawing on the wisdom of more than two hundred creative thinkers, including Steve Jobs and Chris Rock.

Author: Peter Sims

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

ISBN: 1439170436

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 213

View: 146

Lays out strategies for harnessing one's creativity for greater success, drawing on the wisdom of more than two hundred creative thinkers, including Steve Jobs and Chris Rock.

Critical Thinking Instructor s Manual

case anybody asks — the house also collects all bets made on red , black , odd ,
even , and other “ outside ” bets when the zeros come up ; these bets work out to
the same 5 . 2 % advantage to the house . ) 2 . One source for this sort of thing is
 ...

Author: Brooke Noel Moore

Publisher:

ISBN: 9781559348379

Category: Critical thinking

Page: 364

View: 330


Thinking Big

five dollars each on a three - horse win parlay and a round robin of win parlays
pairing each of these three with each of the others : Horse A with Horse B , Horse
A with Horse C , and Horse B with Horse C . It is a silly way to bet ; a sucker ' s bet
 ...

Author: Sol Fox

Publisher: Macmillan Publishing Company

ISBN: 9780689115516

Category: Biography & Autobiography

Page: 309

View: 464

The author explains how he eventually became a compulsive gambler, describes its effects on his life, and recounts his eventual cure

Good Thinking

So it is not simply a matter of betting the greatest probability but betting where the
odds are most favorable , where you get the most for your betting dollar . If
someone is willing to give you two to one odds on the toss of a coin provided you
bet ...

Author: Gerald Runkle

Publisher: Forth Worth, Tex. : Holt, Rinehart, and Winston

ISBN:

Category: Philosophy

Page: 482

View: 474


Elmore Leonard s Western Roundup 1

I ' d say you could bet either way on that fight , ” Shelby said . He told Junior to
hand him the bundle for the tailor shop - a bolt of prison cloth wrapped in brown
paper — and walked off with it . Most of them , Shelby was thinking , would bet on
 ...

Author: Elmore Leonard

Publisher: Delta

ISBN:

Category: Fiction

Page: 501

View: 417

The first in a series of collections of the author's westerns, written early in his spectacularly successful career, contains "Bounty Hunters," "Forty Lashes Less One," and "Gunsights," featuring a Bonny-and-Clyde pair of gunslingers. Original.

Sunday s Child

( Removing the pipe . ) Ugh ! ( He likes the minister very much . ) Rev. Wells .
Hello , Deborah . Debbie . ( Getting up from the couch and standing to the left of it
in center stage . ) Good evening , Mr. Wells . Do you think Bets will get the dress ?

Author: Elisabeth Welch

Publisher:

ISBN:

Category: Humorous plays

Page: 36

View: 127


Taking Chances

My reaction to the offer tells me about the probability I attach to the event in
question . If I feel that making a bet is favourable at these odds , I am attaching a
probability of more than one in three ; if I shy away , thinking that the bet is poor
value ...

Author: John Haigh

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

ISBN:

Category: Mathematics

Page: 330

View: 904

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella.Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, includingfootball pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includesinformation on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.


Ken Warren Teaches Texas Hold em

Does the other player want you to call two bets cold, or is he worried that you'll
call one bet and then another if he just bets? Test Your Knowledge #8 If the flop
is Q47*2^ , and someone check-raises to make you fold, what do you think he ...

Author: Ken Warren

Publisher: Cardoza

ISBN: 9781580420853

Category: Games & Activities

Page: 416

View: 478

This book is a step-by-step manual for winning at hold'em by the world's best-selling author of Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em Poker. Each chapter teaches the reader one important principle and features great practical advice plus examples from actual games and how to apply them to the reader's own games.

Blackjack the Smart Way

Author: Richard Harvey

Publisher:

ISBN: 9780967218236

Category: Blackjack (Game)

Page: 277

View: 621

It's super hot! The successor to two Sold Out editions of Blackjack The Smart Way was already back-ordered before its June 2000 release!And no wonder. Richard Harvey's been in demand nationwide, as a radio talk show guest, for book signing events from coast to coast, and as a public speaker, ever since the first edition of Blackjack The Smart Way was released in mid-1999. His workshops and seminars have been taken by hundreds nationwide, and his unique new system for winning at blackjack has been featured in many newspaper articles nationwide.Blackjack The Smart Way is unique in many, many ways -- including its amazing win rate of 88.24% in real-world casino field tests. While most other blackjack books are aimed at wealthy gamblers and mathematical geniuses, this is easy to understand, with explanations and illustrations that cater to the average casino-goer and is equally successful for low-stakes and high-stakes table players alike.Richard Harvey teaches there are many overlooked factors in becoming a winner -- including the skills of picking a good casino and a good table.His card strategy is built upon the author's breakthrough research on which dealer up cards are really good for the player -- No Other Blackjack Book has this Information. He reveals that some dealer up cards traditionally thought favorable to the player are actually Not, and that some dealer up cards traditionally thought favorable to the dealer are actually Not. That changes things a lot, and allows the player to make brilliant, winning moves.Other concepts found nowhere else include: the author's own Card Observation Method, which is simpler and more effective than card counting in predicting whatthe dealer's important hole card will be, and what card the player might get next; the author's X Factor Method, which tells players how to manage their bets, and tells them when to leave -- either up or down; and, the 3-Level Notch-Up, Notch-Down Money Management System, which maximizes your gains, while limiting downside risk.Sure to generate controversy, it debunks the myth of card counting as ruler of the blackjack universe, while presenting a new way to count cards that includes All the Cards, unlike other systems. The author's main contention is that card counting should Not be linked with how much players should bet. And there's much more...

Freshman

I've been thinking about it all weekend . ” “ Me , too . It kind of makes me sick now
. " Bets nodded . “ How long did you stay after I left ? ” “ Not long . " " Did you write
much more in her locker ? ” " No. " Micki went over and sat next to Bets . “ I think ...

Author: Linda A. Cooney

Publisher: Scholastic Paperbacks

ISBN: 9780590416740

Category: High schools

Page: 233

View: 891

Micki Greene is so determined to do well as a freshman at Redwood High School, that she becomes very upset when Page seems to get all of the credit for Micki's hard work.

Compulsive Gamblers

The office pool on the world series , church raffles , small bets to back up an
argument ( “ A dollar says that that store is on ... Once the man has made the first
bet , he can either continue or abstain . ... Ned is thinking of going back to
gambling .

Author: Jay Livingston

Publisher:

ISBN:

Category: Compulsive gambling

Page: 162

View: 155